Yost Realty Group
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We've known and have been reporting for several months now that Arizona had hit bottom in terms of the real estate market and defaults last year. Today's news tells us the trend for lower default rates across four key loan categories declined for the third consecutive month nationally. This is good news!
Read the full story here.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The relentless decline in home prices is nearing an end and prices should rise for the first time in seven years in 2013, but a possible new wave of foreclosures could threaten the recovery, according a Reuters poll of economists.
The median forecast of 24 economists polled by Reuters was for the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index to end the year unchanged. That was the same finding back in January for this house price gauge, which covers 20 cities.
"We are expecting a gradual improvement, but if we get a big wave of new foreclosures coming to the market, price declines could be even greater," said Yelena Shulyatyeva, an economist at BNP Paribas in New York.
The survey forecast the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index rising 2.0 percent next year, up from 1.5 percent in the January survey.
The housing market's collapse pushed the economy into its longest and deepest recession since the 1930s. Historically, housing has led the economy out of recession, but it has been the weakest link in the recovery that started in mid-2009.
While residential construction accounts for a mere 2.3 percent of gross domestic product, home prices have an oversized reach in the economy, influencing a wide range of consumption decisions by households.
House prices have so far fallen about 32 percent from their peak at the end of 2005, and an estimated 11 million Americans now owe more on their homes than they are worth.
A resulting tide of foreclosures has held back the housing market's recovery.
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The latest National Association of Home Builders/First American Improving Markets Index (IMI) numbers show that a total of thirty-five states are now represented.
In order to be considered an improving market these metro areas must have shown improvement in housing permits, employment, and home prices for the last six months straight. This data is comprised from reports employment growth reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, house price appreciation from Freddie Mac, and single-family housing permit growth from the U.S. Census Bureau.
"While housing markets across the country continue to struggle under the weight of overly tight lending conditions and other challenges, the April IMI indicates that at least 101 individual metros are showing measurable and consistent signs that they are headed in the right direction," said NAHB Chairman Barry Rutenberg. "A total of 35 states are now represented on the list, with 10 states having four or more entries. This positive news is in line with what our builder members have observed regarding firming conditions and improved buyer interest in certain locations."
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The expectation that home prices, rents and mortgage rates are all likely to rise this year led Fannie Mae survey respondents to say now is a good time to get into the market.
A convergence of factors is leading more Americans to believe that now is a good time to buy a home, according to the latest Fannie Mae Housing Survey.
The belief that rents, home prices and mortgage rates all will rise this year contributed to that determination.
The monthly survey conducted in March found that 73% of respondents believed now is a good time to buy a home, up from 70% in February.
Home sales shot up 22.3 percent in March as increasingly confident buyers rushed to snap up houses in the peak buying season. The increased activity resulted in a modest price hike, which is one of many indicators in recent months that the Valley’s battered housing market is recovering.
This spring’s buying spree is driven by families who prefer to move this time of year and historically low pricing, said Chris Heagerty, the ARMLS communications director.
“Because the housing was so incredibly affordable, people were just buying them like crazy,” she said.
The ARMLS March figures show improvement across the board.
The inventory of homes for sale continued a long decrease, dropping 7.9 percent to 21,863 units. The March numbers are similar to 2003 and 2004, which Heagerty called “the last normal markets.” More than 56,000 homes were listed in November 2009.
Heagerty said that’s created some unpleasant side effects.
“We’re starting to see our agents complain that there’s not enough inventory,” she said.
That’s especially true of houses priced less than $100,000. Those cheaper homes had dominated the market recently but the supply is running out and leading to more activity in homes above that level.
The tight supply is good news to homeowners who watched values suffer from their high in June 2006. Prices plummeted 59.1 percent when they hit bottom in May 2011, at $108,300.
Prices have come up 19.9 percent since then, to $129,900 in March.
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Appraisals that come in lower than the agreed-upon sales price are a source of frustration for home buyers, sellers, and real estate professionals, as they can quickly derail a deal.
If an appraisal comes in 10 percent lower than the agreed-upon sales price, for example, a bank will likely only agree to finance the lower value, which means either a buyer must make up the difference, a seller must come down on price, or the deal falls apart.
Homes for sale in declining markets are particularly ripe for appraisal problems. On standard appraisal forms, there’s a box that even says “declining value,” meaning falling home prices in the area, which will likely cause banks to slash another 5 percent off the value too, says mortgage broker Gloria Shulman, founder of Centek Capital Group in Beverly Hills. Foreclosures, which often sell for about 30 percent less than non-foreclosures, are also complicating appraisals when they’re inappropriately used as comps, agents say.
In some cases, real estate professionals have been successful in helping their clients get an adjustment on an appraisal, particularly when they can show that the comparable sales used were not good similarities to the property for-sale.
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Between 2008 and 2010, the Phoenix housing market was in the news for all the wrong reasons. It was often lumped together with Las Vegas and most of Southern California, and labeled as ‘ground zero’ for the housing crash. It spawned countless headlines of doom and gloom, like these:
Today, the Phoenix real estate market is still making headlines, but for totally different reasons. It now appears to be one of the strongest of the major metropolitan areas, in terms of home-price stability. Consider the following:
The housing market in Pinal and Maricopa counties still isn’t good, but it’s a good deal better than it was a year ago.
That’s the conclusion of Michael J. Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University. His monthly report on the two-county housing market contains a number of encouraging signs:
-- Overall prices for single-family homes in the two counties combined have risen 8.3 percent in the last year.
-- Supply of homes on the market is down 42 percent since February 2011.
-- Monthly foreclosure starts were higher this February than the preceding month, but were down 9 percent from February 2011.
-- The number of homes reverting to lenders at trustee sales has fallen 72 percent in the last year as normal resales and investor flips rose sharply and sales of bank-owned and government sponsored enterprise homes dropped significantly.
The increased sales were accounted for in Maricopa County, however, as Pinal County’s overall sales actually dropped 1.3 percent to 996 during February 2012. But even that number contained some embedded good news as bidding at trustee auctions grew and more foreclosed properties went to third-party bidders. That means far fewer foreclosed homes were added to the inventory of banks and government enterprises.
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PHOENIX -- Outside the Superior Courthouse in Phoenix, a crowd grows around a white pop up tent with bold green lettering. Every Tuesday morning at 9:00 a.m. Auction.com passes out numbered paddles in an attempt to organize a motley crew of bidders. They represent millions of dollars ready to swoop up Valley homes hitting the auction block. Some are here sent by an investor interested in picking up one home, others like Dan Robinson and Dusty Figg, are working for a bidding company representing dozens of investors from all over the world. As supply dwindles, the race to snag lucrative deals becomes a race for the most accurate facts. If you rely on national statistics, local realtor Russell Shaw says you're seriously misguided. "All the national services have odd theories and false data." For the truth on Arizona housing trends, he says, "You can't get anyone better than Tom Ruff of AZBidders and Mike Orr of the Cromford Report." The two have formed a partnership following real time Arizona real estate data. To continue reading this story click here.
The number of home foreclosures in Arizona is falling, but the state is still ranked in the top five for the highest number of 
foreclosures in the past year, according to CoreLogic .
The national real estate research firm found in its latest report that Arizona ranked fourth for home foreclosures with 62,607 completed between February of 2011 and the same month this year. California, Florida and Michigan were the top three states for completed home foreclosures in that 12-month span.
The number of Arizona homes in the foreclosure process in February fell 1.5 percentage points from a year ago to 2.5 percent in February.
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Displaying blog entries 11-20 of 239
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